The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions: Odds, Picks, Analyses

With nearly two weeks to go before the big event, it’s prime time for us to roll out our The International 2018 Battle Pass predictions for Battle Pass owners and interested bettors alike.

It’s that time of the year again.

With the Dota Summit 9 now over, we can finally have a complete look of the season and make more accurate guesses for the TI8 battle pass. We say guesses, because, well, it’s extremely difficult if not impossible to get this 100% right. Especially with multiple patches worth of relevant data to sift through. Every single one of the predictions we’re about to make are essentially hail marys, with a single, unprecedented, and probably hour-long slugfest capable of affecting multiple others.

But, that’s really no reason not to try either. After all, if you take the time to crunch down the numbers, even just for a bit, you’ll be able to make predictions that are slightly more likely to come true.

Having said that, you’ll find our predictions for the TI8 battle pass below, including a breakdown of our choices.

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions: Heroes

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

Windranger is the prime choice as the most picked hero. She only received a minor cooldown increase (Windrun cooldown increased from 12 to 15/14/13/12) in the latest patch and was extremely popular in 7.17 (most picked) and 7.18 (second-most picked). Plus, there are multiple players who can play her extremely well at The International 2018.

Io should easily claim the title as the most banned hero at TI8. Despite the nerf, she remains a permaban, especially against the heavy favourites like LGD Gaming, Virtus.Pro, and Team Liquid, who most likely will be playing a lot of games.

Hero with highest winrate usually goes to some extremely niche hero that’s going to perform well and is going to be played just enough times to qualify. I went with Abbadon. Meanwhile, Ursa and Spirit Breaker has averaged the most kills and assists since 7.13 so they’re good bets for the hero with highest kill avg and hero with highest assist avg respectively — Ursa actually lags behind Meepo by .06 average kills, but Meepo has only been played in 4 games during that span.

For the hero with lowest death avg pick, I went went with Clinkz, with Medusa as my pick for the hero with highest last hit avg — with high ground being harder to penetrate, expect teams to gamble on Medusa. I believe we’ll see a couple of Meepo games, so he should be a safe pick for hero with highest XPM avg.

As for the hero with most kills in a game, I’m guessing Mirana would have a fair shot, followed by Medusa for hero with most last hits in a game for reasons already specified above.

Betting: Ursa as the Hero with the Highest Kill Average at 12 odds. (GGbet)

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions: Teams

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

We’re going with Team Liquid as the winners here. It’s time that someone wins it twice. Besides, as good as Virtus.Pro have been, more teams have beaten the CIS bears than the reigning TI champions this season.

For the team with most kills in a game we’re going with Virtus.Pro, followed by Winstrike for the team with the highest kill avg — the former FlyToMoon squad averages the most kills out of every team playing at TI8 — and Evil Geniuses as the team with fewest deaths in a game.

As for the team with most assists in a game, we’re going back to Winstrike again. They lead every Dota 2 team all season long with a minimum of 30 games played with an average of 73.01 assists. The closest to them are VGJ.Storm and Virtus.Pro, with an average of 63.58 and 63.21 assists per game respectively.

Fnatic and their long-game shenanigans make them an easy pick for the team that wins the longest game and the team with highest game length avg. At the same time, Evil Geniuses are the exact opposite, which makes them my pick for the team that wins the shortest game.

Team Serenity are Chinese, new to the scene, and don’t really play too many heroes to begin with, so that makes them likely to finish as the team that picks the fewest different heroes.

As for the team that picks the most different heroes, it’ll either be Team Secret or Team Liquid, but we’re going with the latter since we already have them pegged as the overall winners.

Betting: Winstrike as the Team with the Highest Kills Average at 20 odds. (GGbet)

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions: Players

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

Surprisingly, Bogdan ‘Iceberg’ Vasilenko is the only player at TI8 to average more than 10 kills a game, making him the prime pick for the player with highest kill avg. But, we’re going with Armel Paul ‘Armel‘ Tabios as the player with most kills in a game because of how naturally aggresive he is and how TNC Pro Team enables him.

Roman ‘Resolut1on‘ Fominok is a safe pick for the player with lowest death avg because of his risk-averse playstyle.

As part of the team with the highest kill and assist average, Alexander ‘Nofear‘ Churochkin also leads all TI8 players with an average of 16.08 assists per game, although Team Liquid’s Maroun ‘GH‘ Merhej isn’t too far behind with 15.82 assists per game. Feel free to choose between these two as the player with highest assist avg. But, we’re going with Iceberg as the player with most assists in a game just because of the possibility of a redo of his Zeus game at EPICENTER XL.

The player with highest last hit avg and player with most last hits in a game are pretty much up in the air, but it’s hard to go wrong with Resolut1on, who has the second-highest last hit average all season long. You can throw him in as the player with highest GPM avg for the same reason.

We’re going with Jacky ‘EternaLEnVy‘ Mao, however, as the player with most GPM in a game, just because we think he’s one of the few players to have the balls to play Alchemist at TI8.

Finally, Amer ‘Miracle-‘ Al-Barkawi is the most versatile player on arguably the most versatile team in the world (Team Liquid), so he’s our pick for player that plays the most different heroes.

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions: Tournament

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

The International 2018 Battle Pass Predictions

Just like last year, 52 games is a good approximation of the number of games played in the main event, making 50-54 as a relatively safe pick for the total number of games played at the main event. Last year, at TI7, we saw 107 heroes picked throughout the tournament. Judging by how versatile the current meta has been, 101+ is a good number for total number of heroes picked and total number of heroes banned.

With the prize pool bigger than ever, don’t expect teams to tap out easy, especially in the main event. That’s why we’re going with 100:00+ as our pick for the longest game of the tournament. Conversely, we’re going with 15:00 to 19:59 as the shortest game of the tournament with it likely coming at the tail end of the group stages.

With Alchemist not as fast of a farmer as he was before, the 1k GPM mark will be hard to reach, which means 900-999 is likely the top and best pick for highest GPM by a hero in a game.

As for the picks for most kills by a hero in a game, most deaths by a hero in a game, and most assists by a hero in a game, we’re going with the max values based on our early picks and how the participating teams have performed so far.

Final Thoughts

As always, every prediction here is less of a toss-up and more of a crapshoot. You can never really fully predict what’s going to happen. But, as far as our research goes, we have made sure to do our fair share of digging. This means that our picks are more than just a gut feeling. They’re based on cold-hard facts and the performances of every one of the eighteen teams playing at The International 2018 throughout the year.

Having said that, feel free to go against our guide. It’s not, by any means, definitive, anyway. Better yet, we encourage you to do your own homework and make picks based on what you came up. Or, you know, you could take the easy route and follow our guide. We’ll gladly take the heat in case a lot of our picks don’t pan out.

Regardless of what you do, make sure that you do it in a hurry. We only have roughly around two weeks to go before the biggest event in Dota 2 of the year, and the clock is ticking for you to start making your predictions and placing your bets.

Data courtesy of datdota and opendota, unless otherwise stated.

What do you think of our The International 2018 Battle Pass predictions? Do you think most of it will come true? What are your picks like? Be sure to let us know your thoughts in the comments down below.

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