This is a betting preview for the fifth week of the Overwatch League. We’re near the end of Stage One, and each team has just two matches left to play. When this first stage is done, there will be a break of about a week or so before Stage Two of the event begins. That represents a break in winnings for those betting on the League, so it’s crucial to maximize earnings on this week’s matches at this stage of the event.
A week of predictions, all at once
Giving you the week’s predictions all at once lets you catch the hottest odds just as soon as a match goes up, so go to it. There are twelve matches due this week, of which we’ll cover the four initial ones today. Some of the matches featured below are sure wins at low odds, while others are low risk prepositions that offer higher odds and bigger winnings. We’ve laid out everything below, allowing you to make informed choices about where to place your stake.
Florida Mayhem (FLA) Vs New York Excelsior (NYE) – A Sure win
We’ll start right out with the pick of the day, and a sure win. This match is on the eighth of February, and it features a team of game masters pitted against opponents who really have no chance against them. Do note that the odds are bound to be lower here, so you’ll need to balance that with a higher stake on sure winnings. This match is only worth betting on if you up your stake, but if you do, this match is a sure win, and as good as money in the bank. Let’s go into why this is so.
It’s quite simple
NYE are one of the best teams in the Overwatch League and FLA one of the weakest. If that’s not enough assurance of a sure win for you, here are the statistics. NYE have won seven out of eight matches, and twenty five out of thirty four maps played. Florida Mayhem, on the other hand, have won just one match to date, and were only able to win seven maps. This simple statistic illustrates the considerable difference in skill between these teams.
How good are they in different modes?
FLA’s best mode is Escort with a fifty percent win rate. That’s just about the only mode they do even reasonably well in. They have a win rate of a mere twenty percent in Hybrid, and an even more dismal ten percent in Control and Assault. NYE’s weakest mode is Assault, and they even have a sixty percent win rate in that. They have equally above-average win rates in all the rest of the modes, with sixty seven percent in Control, seventy percent in Escort and eighty five percent in Hybrid.
Which are each teams best maps?
FLA’s best maps don’t say much for them, since they have a win rate of a mere fifty percent in Junkertown, and thirty three percent in Dorado. Those are the good ones. Their win rates in the other maps are little short of disastrous. They have a twenty percent win rate in Ilios, Eichenwalde and Numbani, and just sixteen percent in Anubis. They have no chance of a win at all in Oasis and Lunar.
NYE’s weakest map is also Lunar, but they have a forty percent win rate in it. They play reasonably well in Lijiang, with a fifty percent win rate, and in Junkertown with sixty percent. NYE play exceptionally well in Eichenwalde, in which they have a flawless streak of wins, and in Dorado, where their win rate is eighty percent. They also play well in Ilios, and have a seventy five percent win rate there. They are reasonable in Oasis and Numbani, with a win rate of sixty percent.
This is this week’s surest win in the Overwatch League. The odds are low, but the chances of a win on New York Excelsior approach one hundred percent. Stake high and expand your personal ‘bank’. If you want the lowest risk tied to the surest returns, then this is the match for you.
Los Angeles Valiant (VAL) Vs Seoul Dynasty (SEO)
A low risk venture with excellent returns
Is is a nice low-risk, high-return investment on the seventh of February, right on the first day of this week’s matches. This is a battle offering reasonable odds between two teams competing to qualify for the Semifinals. SEO are playing in excellent form, but have gone down disastrously before London Spitfire and New York Excelsior. Nevertheless, they have defeated teams quite as strong as VAL recently. SEO have scored eighteen points here, with six wins and two losses. They also won twenty maps out of thirty four played, and tied in one. VAL are hardly weak, but are not doing as well as SEO, having won five matches to date, with three losses. Their current score is fifteen points and they have won nineteen maps, with two draws and thirteen losses.
Here’s how each team does in different modes
VAL are extremely effective in Hybrid mode, with a seventy five percent win rate. They are also good in Control and Escort mode with win rates of about sixty percent. They seem to be less effective in Assault, with a forty five percent chance of a win. SEO, on the other hand, are exceptionally good at Assault, with a win rate of eighty two percent. They aren’t very much worse than that in Control mode, with a win rate of seventy five percent, and better than average in Hybrid, with sixty four percent. Escort is really SEO’s ‘weak link’, where they have a win rate that’s only a little better than average at fifty five percent. As you can see, SEO are really performing a good deal better than VAL.
A map analysis for these teams
Lunar is VAL’s weakest map with no wins at all, and Oasis the second weakest, with a forty percent win rate. VAL have a sixty percent win rate in Junkertown and Eichenwalde, and sixty six percent in Lijiang. Ilios, Dorado and Numbani are really their best maps, with the win rates hovering at about eighty percent. VAL are all but invincible in Anubis, having never lost there. SEO’s weakest maps are Dorado, Eichenwalde and Lijiang, with win rates hovering at a mere fifty percent. They are just about average in Junkertown and Numbani, with a win rate of fifty seven percent win. However, they are exceptional in Lunar and Ilios, with a win rate of eighty six percent and eighty three percent respectively; extremely good in Oasis, with eighty percent; and proficient in Anubis, with seventy five percent.
SEO are really better than VAL in both skills and strategy. They also tend to do better than VAL in various maps as well. SEO therefore have a very reasonable chance of a win here, though there is still some small element of risk. These teams are well matched, which gives far better odds than a match with a one-hundred-percent win probability. Even a smaller stake placed on Seoul Dynasty here will yield excellent returns.
Shanghai Dragons (SHD) Vs Dallas Fuel (DAL)
This match and the next one will also be played on the seventh of February. Shanghai Dragons seem to be the weakest team in the Overwatch League, winning not a single match out of eight matches played, and just four maps out of thirty three. Their performances so far have been little short of miserable. If they were facing a reasonable team, this match would be a sure win, but their opponent here is Dallas Fuel, who, if anything, out-do them for incompetence. Dallas Fuel have won just one match out of eight played. As for maps, Dallas won eight maps out of the thirty three, tying in three maps. One might even say, if it didn’t sound so ironical, that these two teams are well matched. That being the case, either one of these teams could add a win to their score here.
Dallas Fuel does better in the various modes than Shanghai Dragons
Shanghai Dragons have an utterly dismal win rate of twenty percent in Escort mode and Assault. They also have a seventeen percent win rate in Control. They have been unable win a single map to date in Hybrid. Dallas Fuel, on the other hand, have a fifty percent win rate in Control, thirty five percent in Assault, and thirty in Hybrid and Escort. Unexceptional as those win rates are, they still dominate Shanghai Dragons’ stats.
A map analysis for these teams
Lunar is Shanghai Dragons’ best map with a forty percent win rate. They have a twenty percent win rate in Ilios, Oasis, Dorado and Junkertown. They have never won in Eichenwalde, Numbani and Lijiang. Dallas Fuel do best in Oasis, with a win rate of seventy five percent. Their second best map is Lijiang, with a fifty percent win rate. They also do reasonably well in Lunar, with a forty percent win rate. Their win rates in Ilios, Junkertown and Numbani are a uniform thirty three percent. Dallas have no wins in Eichenwalde. Dallas Fuel have a much better map pool in general.
These teams perform so dismally that a stake placed here could be a bit of a risk. If the match reaches a tiebreaker, Dallas Fuel are likely to dominate. This is because Lijiang has been chosen for the tiebreaker map, and it is a map where Dallas Fuel play reasonably well, and so have a distinct advantage over a team that plays unreasonably badly.
San Francisco Shock (SFS) Vs Los Angeles Gladiators (GLA)
This is a set of matched teams, once again. Both teams have won three out of five matches played, scoring a total of nine points. If there is any difference in how they’ve been performing, it lies in the maps won and lost. San Francisco Shock have thirteen wins, two ties and eighteen losses. Los Angeles Gladiators have twelve wins and twenty two losses. Los Angeles Gladiators’ map win rate could be a problem with them as the league progresses, as the map win rate is used as a tie-breaker.
Which team dominates in the game modes?
San Francisco Shock play reasonably well in Control mode, with a sixty two percent win rate. They are also good in Escort mode, with a forty five percent win rate. Hybrid and Assault are a weakness with them, with a win rate of just twenty seven percent there.
Los Angeles Gladiators do best in Hybrid mode, with a fifty percent win rate. Were we being ironical there? We weren’t aware of it. They do next ‘best’ at Control, with a forty six percent win rate. Their performances are considerably below average in Assault mode, with a thirty percent win rate, and in Escort mode with just twenty percent. Neither of these teams seem to be capable of dominating the other in general.
Can either team dominate in the map pools?
Oasis is the best map for SFS, with a sixty seven percent win rate, and Ilios comes next at sixty percent. They have a mere fifty percent chance of a win in both Dorado and Lijiang, and just forty percent in Junkertown and Numbani. Anubis and Lunar are their weakest maps, with win rates of thirty three percent and twenty percent respectively. GLA’s top two maps are Lijiang and Eichenwalde, where they have win rates of sixty seven and sixty percent respectively. They are also reasonably effective in Oasis, with a fifty percent win rate, and in Lunar and Numbani with forty percent. They are weak in quite a few maps, including Ilios, with a win rate of a mere thirty percent, as well as Anubis, Dorado and Junkertown, where they have a win rate of just twenty percent.
These teams are equally balanced, which makes this rather a combination to avoid when placing a stake on the Overwatch League. They are equal when it comes to maps, matches and game modes. We’d advise you to reserve any stake you would place here for the more predictable matches we mentioned earlier.
These are the most carefully formulated match predictions, by analysts who thoroughly study team histories and playing styles. Stay tuned for more match-by-match analyses and predictions for this event. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for the latest on your favourite Esports titles.