We’re at the ECS Playoffs, and the first match is between Astralis and mousesports. Astralis defeated Cloud9 and FaZe Clan in a couple of major upsets to suddenly become the top team in Group B. Mousesports, on the other hand, first lost their match against OpTic Gaming, but then performed brilliantly in the elimination matches against Luminosity Gaming to make it to the deciders. In the deciders, mousesports faced OpTic Gaming once again, but this time in a best of three, and mousesports defeated them to face Astralis in the Semifinals.
Can mousesports defeat Astralis in the ECS Playoffs?
Let us see how well mousesports are doing with their current roster. They have participated in one hundred and sixteen matches. Their overall win rate is fifty eight percent, with sixty eight wins and forty eight losses. Forty seven of the matches were played offline, and of those, mousesports won twenty nine. That gives them a sixty two percent win rate for offline matches, which is four percent more than their overall win rate. They have played fourteen best of three matches and won eleven of them, gaining a win rate of seventy eight percent in best of three matches.
It has been more than six months since these teams faced each other in offline matches. Astralis have taken RUBINO on loan from Dignitas and they have only played offline matches so far with him on the team. They started out very badly in the ESL Pro League and only won a single match, and that in overtime. But they beat the odds at this event, after defeating both Cloud9 and FaZe Clan. Out of seven matches played with RUBINO on the team, Astralis have won three, increasing their win rate to forty three percent. This gives Astralis a good chance against mousesports. Do note that this will be the first best of three match for Astralis with RUBINO on the team, and mousesports could use this to their advantage.
Mousesports must ban these maps to win
Astralis have played Train twice and won both times, once against Luminosity Gaming and once against Cloud9. They defeated FaZe Clan in Overpass, and that’s one of FaZe Clan’s best maps. They have failed to win in Mirage and Inferno, but perhaps that was before they got the team meta together.
Train and Overpass are mousesports’ best maps as well. But they would do well to ban these maps, to deprive Astralis of them, because mousesports’ present roster has a wider range of maps in which they excel. Their most successful map in offline matches is Nuke. If Astralis does not ban Nuke at first, mousesports must pick Nuke, since Astralis have not played it with RUBINO. Cobblestone is also a good option for mousesports, since Astralis do not have a good sniper on their team right now.
Which team has the best chance here?
Astralis still have one important weakness. This is that they’ve shown a tendency to lose any map they play for the first time with RUBINO on their team. If mousesports want to use this, they must try to ban maps that Astralis has already adapted to with RUBINO, namely Train, Overpass, Mirage and Inferno. Both these teams are equally strong and the match could go either way. Nevertheless, mousesports seem to have a better chance of getting through the ECS Playoffs than Astralis. The odds are running at 2.15 on mousesports.
These are the most carefully formulated match predictions, by analysts who thoroughly study team histories and playing styles. Stay tuned for more match-by-match analyses and predictions for this event. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter and Facebook for the latest on your favourite Esports titles.