The combined qualifiers for the Europe and CIS region for the ROG DreamLeague Major is finally on its final leg, with just three more days and seven matches left.
Below, we laid down the case for each of the remaining teams in contention and what their chances are to qualify for the second Pro Circuit Major of the season.
Chances of Qualifying: 100%
With a 10 wins in 12 games played, Team Secret have already gathered up enough points to qualify for the ROG DreamLeague Major. They can skip every one of their remaining matches and be done with it.
Betting: Team Secret to tie Team Liquid at 1/1 (bet365)
Chances of Qualifying: 90%
As per Valve, one team from each of the six main competitive regions has to make it to the LAN Finals of a Pro Circuit tournament via regional qualifiers. This means that for a CIS team to qualify to the ROG DreamLeague Major, all they’ll need to do is to top every other CIS team in the qualifiers.
With a 7-3 win-loss record, Virtus Pro are ahead of the only other CIS team still in contention, Natus Vincere, at 5-3. The bears will have to lose both of their next two games via sweeps for them to fail to qualify. Meanwhile, Natus Vincere will need to win at least three more games.
Natus Vincere still have a huge chance of qualifying, but not at the expense of Virtus Pro, whose current iteration holds a 6-0 series advantage against them, a record that dates back to October of 2016.
Betting: Virtus Pro with -1.5 Handicap against Natus Vincere at 2.22 odds (ArcaneBet)
Chances of Qualifying: 87%
It feels weird to say that there’s a chance that the reigning TI champions — and the back-to-back DreamLeague Champions at that — may not even make it to the ROG DreamLeague Major LAN Finals. But, while that 87% is big, you’d have to consider the fact that two of their three remaining matches are up against the only teams to have ever beaten them in a series since Invictus Gaming sent them down to the lower brackets at The International 7.
Team Liquid have looked arguably better since those losses, but you’ll never know; both Team Secret and Virtus Pro could easily sweep them and drastically lower their chances of defending their title.
Betting: Team Liquid to draw against MidorFeed at 2.85 odds (ggbet)
Chances of Qualifying: 64%
Natus Vincere have three more opponents left to play against and they have a good chance of getting atleast a draw against two of them. Even if they split their series against MidorFeed and OG and get swept by Virtus Pro, they’ll still end up with a 7-5 record. That’s enough to give them a shot via tiebreaker against OG, but only if OG sweeps MidorFeed.
Put simply, there are a lot of ifs that has to happen for Natus Vincere to fail to qualify for the ROG DreamLeague Major.
Betting: Natus Vincere to win 2-0 against MidorFeed at 5/6 odds (bet365)
Chances of Qualifying: 19%
By virtue of having more games left to play, MidorFeed have a better chance of qualifying than OG despite their 3-5 win-loss record. However, when you consider that their remaining opponents are Team Liquid, Natus Vincere and coincidentally, OG, things aren’t exactly looking up for them.
For MidorFeed to qualify, they’ll have to split their series against Team Liquid and either one of OG and Natus Vincere while sweeping the other.
That’s a tall order no matter how you look at it.
Betting: MidorFeed to draw against OG at 2.3 odds (ggbet)
Chances of Qualifying: 14%
OG’s chances of qualifying are out of their hands now, because even if they go on to win their next 4 games, an 8-6 win-loss record isn’t enough to guarantee their spot at the ROG DreamLeague Major.
For them to qualify, they’ll have to sweep Natus Vincere and MidorFeed and pray that Virtus Pro sweeps Natus Vincere as well. If there’s any consolation, though, this makes OG a great underdog pick to risk on.
Betting: OG to sweep Natus Vincere at 6/4 odds (bet365)
For more information about the ROG DreamLeague Major Qualifiers, be sure to check out their official website at dreamleague.dreamhack.com